Thursday, September 13, 2012

Reagor: New-home market projections promising

Homebuilding in metro Phoenix has increased more than many people expected this year.

A growing number of homebuyers frustrated after losing out on bidding wars for foreclosure and short-sale homes have opted to pay a little more to get a new house.

Housing analysts RL Brown and Greg Burger recently updated their market expectations for homebuilding in the region. The publishers of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter say the most "probable" forecast for new home sales this year is 10,000. That's up from 7,100 sales last year.

In 2013, the new-home market is expected to grow to 15,000 sales. Their forecasts call for 21,000 sales in 2014 and 28,000 in 2015.

Brown said if the economy cooperates and corporate America creates new jobs, then metro Phoenix's housing market will be one of the best in the country.

The analysts expect 14,000 new-home permits will be issued this year and 16,000 in 2013. The homebuilding market is projected to grow to 22,000 permits in 2014 and 29,000 in 2015.

Research from the National Association of Home Builders shows that two to three jobs are created for every new home built.

Metro Phoenix's homebuilding market was decimated during the crash. Permits went from a record 64,000 in 2006 to 7,000 last year. Overall, more than 200,000 construction jobs were lost during the recession.

Burger said homebuilding in Mesa, Chandler and Gilbert is leading the new-home market's recovery and will continue to do so over the next few years.

The housing analysts have concerns about issues that could slow the new-home market's recovery. Brown said if material costs rise too much and contractors can't find enough construction workers, homebuying and -building won't increase as much as the forecasts predict.

by Catherine Reagor - Aug. 3, 2012 The Republic |

Reagor: New-home market projections promising

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